Amsterdam Property Market 2020

Amsterdam House price forecast 2020

April 30th, 2020 By: James Evans

Decreased sentiment and fewer transactions; the housing market is clearly past its highest peak. On top of that comes the blow of the corona crisis. Due to increased uncertainty and measures to prevent the spread of the virus, people are expected to postpone the purchase of a house.


Just like last year, fewer homes are expected to be sold again in 2020. This also has an impact on price developments and we therefore expect house price increases to deaccelerate in 2020.

 

House price expectations of ABN AMRO and Rabobank

Economists from the largest banks in the Netherlands have just said this about house prices in 2020:

ABN AMRO expects the average house price to rise by 4.4% in 2020 (compared to 7% last year).

Rabobank assumes an average house price increase of 3.5%. The bank is thus adjusting its expectations downwards. Before the corona crisis, Rabobank took into account an average price increase of 5.5%.

New construction is lagging behind

More needs to be built to solve the housing shortage. With the 'National Housing Agenda', the Cabinet aims for 75,000 new homes per year until 2025. Despite these plans, the number of deliveries is lagging.

 

This is partly due to the nitrogen and PFAS crisis. The corona crisis is now being added to this. The target number of new homes is therefore almost certainly out of reach.

 

Buying house more often out of reach

The shortage on the housing market continues for the time being. We do not expect a turnaround for the house price (read decrease). House prices will continue to rise in 2020.

 

More expensive houses in combination with uncertainty about the corona crisis also means that more buyers (out of necessity) drop out. In addition, mortgage standards will become stricter in 2020 .

 

Fewer buyers in the market also offer opportunities. You can now buy a house with less competition.

 

Stagnant economy is a risk to house prices

The stagnating economy resulting from the corona crisis is a risk for the housing market. The longer the crisis, the greater the economic damage. Therefore, once again the call to keep to the RIVM guideline.

 

Deteriorated economic prospects are having repercussions on the housing market, for example if people postpone buying a house due to loss of job or income.

 

A lower house price rise and lower consumer confidence can reinforce each other (in a negative sense) .

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